New Polls Show Tight Race Between Trump and Harris in Key Battleground States



The 2024 Presidential Election is Shaping Up to Be a Nail-Biter

With less than a month until Election Day, the race for the White House is tightening in several key battleground states. According to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, the contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is a statistical dead heat in a number of crucial swing states that will likely determine the outcome of the election.

The poll, conducted from October 11-13, 2023, surveyed likely voters in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The results show a highly competitive race, with neither candidate holding a clear advantage.

The State-by-State Breakdown

In Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, Trump holds a slim 1-point lead over Harris. The race is tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is up by 2 points in Arizona and Harris is ahead by 1 point in Nevada.

These findings represent a tightening of the race in several states compared to Emerson's previous poll conducted in September. For example, Harris has gained 2 points relative to Trump in Georgia and 1 point in Wisconsin, while Trump has gained 2 points in North Carolina and 1 point in Michigan.

The poll also examined the favorability ratings of the two candidates, as well as former President Barack Obama, who remains a popular figure among voters. The data shows that Harris generally has a higher favorability than Trump, though Obama's favorability exceeds both of them in most states.

The Importance of the Economy and Other Key Issues

When it comes to the top issues facing voters, the economy remains the primary concern across the swing states, with the exception of Arizona where immigration is the top issue. Other key issues include threats to democracy, housing affordability, and abortion.

Interestingly, the poll found that voters who cite the economy as their top issue are more likely to support Trump over Harris. However, when a broader range of economic factors, such as housing affordability, are considered, Harris appears to have a more positive economic message that is resonating with some voters.

The survey also examined down-ballot races, finding evidence of some ticket-splitting. For example, in North Carolina, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Roy Cooper, is leading his Republican opponent by double digits, even as the presidential race remains tight.

The Path Forward for Both Campaigns

With the election just weeks away, both the Trump and Harris campaigns will be laser-focused on turning out their base supporters and appealing to the dwindling pool of undecided voters, particularly independents.

For Harris, the data suggests she will need to make further inroads with female voters, who have been a key part of the Democratic coalition in recent elections. In states like Pennsylvania, where the gender gap is pronounced, Harris will need to run up the score among women to offset Trump's advantage with men.

The Harris campaign will also need to continue refining its economic message, highlighting issues like housing affordability that may resonate with a broader swath of voters. And the potential involvement of former President Obama, whose favorability remains high, could provide a boost in some of these battleground states.

As for Trump, the former president will need to maintain his edge with male voters while also making inroads with independents and ticket-splitters. His campaign will likely double down on issues like immigration that are particularly salient in states like Arizona.

Conclusion: A Race That Will Go Down to the Wire

With the election just weeks away, the race for the White House is shaping up to be a nail-biter. The new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey underscores the highly competitive nature of the contest, with neither Trump nor Harris holding a clear advantage in the key battleground states.

As both campaigns enter the final stretch, they will be pulling out all the stops to energize their base, appeal to undecided voters, and secure victory on Election Day. Ultimately, the outcome may come down to which candidate is better able to turn out their supporters and win over the dwindling pool of independent and ticket-splitting voters.

One thing is certain: the 2024 presidential election will be one for the history books, with high stakes and razor-thin margins in the states that will decide the next occupant of the White House.

Key Takeaways:

- The race for the White House is tightening in several key battleground states, with neither Trump nor Harris holding a clear advantage.

- The economy remains the top issue for voters, though other factors like housing affordability and immigration are also playing a role.

- Voters who cite the economy as their top issue are more likely to support Trump, but Harris appears to have a more positive economic message that is resonating with some voters.

- Harris will need to make further inroads with female voters, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, while Trump will need to maintain his edge with male voters and appeal to independents and ticket-splitters.

- The potential involvement of former President Obama could provide a boost for the Harris campaign in some battleground states.

- The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with the outcome likely coming down to which candidate is better able to turn out their supporters and win over the dwindling pool of independent and ticket-splitting voters.